House of Eratosthenes

“Correlation is not causation!” say the science types. The meaning of this timeless refrain is clear: Just because you find two metrics correlate, throughout space or time, does not necessarily mean one metric is a causative agent of the other. Science cannot be useful to us if it doesn’t measure reality, and part of reality is the coincidence. Scientists must therefore be prepared for the eventuality in which they invest treasure and ego into investigating causation, and ultimately find out it just isn’t there.

Global Warming Reverend Al seems to have missed this. If you’ve watched his movie, you know an important part of his theory is that two curved lines happen to match up. He regales us with a story about one of his former classmates accidentally discovering the theory of continental drift with his observation that the eastern shoreline of South America is shaped very much like the western shoreline of Africa. Then he looks at the correlation between CO2 saturation and something called the mean global temperature or some such. And wonders aloud: Huh. I wonder if we have the same thing happening here?

He leaves his audience — which seems to be made up of young, impressionable minds enrolled in scientific-like college courses — with the impression that whenever you see two curved lines matching up, even a little bit…the first thing you must do is rule out coincidence. Oh, boy. I wonder what science is going to be rolling past us in the next couple of decades?

Indeed, presented on some of the charts, the curves do seem to line up very much like South America and Africa. Reverend Al, therefore, presumes that correlation must be causation. And we’re told “The Science Is Settled!” It is a curious situation, since scientists like to talk about correlation NOT being causation. Reverend Al’s theory is based on this — where are the scientists rushing out of the woodwork to rap him across the knuckles? His theory is based on the idea that correlation is causation — and on nothing else.

But Reverend Al has spoken. So if two curved lines match up, it must mean something. Can I interject something here? If that is the litmus test, I have a few things I’d like checked out. It’s pretty important. Reverend Al has told us our planet is withering away and may not be able to support life in a generation or two. I see correlation. Going by his logic, that must mean causation. Thirty times, I see it. Using Reverend Al’s science. So let’s look into it.

1. Illegal immigration

I’m told we have seventeen million illegal immigrants now, and just a few years ago it was less than ten million. That’s a doubling. It’s a doubling over exactly the same time frame that global warming is supposed to have skyrocketed. Correlation, suddenly, is causation, so I see a cause.

2. “Goldfish Rights” laws

In the early nineties, it looks like the mean global temperature was in a nosedive. That’s when the Maastricht Treaty was signed, forming the European Union. Once that gained momentum, the EU started inventing lots of “rights” for people…then animals…now they’re awarding brand new rights to goldfish. What’s the mean global temperature been doing during this time? I see a connection. Let’s check it out.

3. Reality television shows

They got going, as the temperature went up. Now we’re up to our ears in reality television shows, and the temperature is through the roof. There’s no sign of a slowdown in either case. Check out a possible connection, I say.

4. White kids learning how to rap

That was a 1990’s thing, wasn’t it? That’s when the temperature took off like a rocket. That’s when records were being set.

5. The phrase “I’d love to tell ya, but then I’d have ta kill ya!”

In the past few years, I hear it all the time. In the past few years, global warming is supposed to be life-threatening. Correlation. Must be causation.

6. Diminishing numbers of actors smoking cigarettes in movies

Haven’t you noticed? Back when cigarettes were smoked in movies, we didn’t have global warming.

7. Hillary Clinton opening her mouth and saying things in public

I never heard a peep out of her before 1992. Since 1998, when her husband was exposed as a constant cheat, it seems I’ve seen her face on the screen all over the place. That’s when global warming is supposed to have been a real problem.

8. iPods

It’s a little bit behind the curve, but it could be worth checking out. After all, they’re everywhere today, and we’re terrified of what global warming’s gonna do to us.

9. The phrase “illegal and unjust war” repeated over and over again

I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out the mean global temperature went up a hundredth of a degree, every time this stupid phrase was uttered. I’m sure the charts and graphs will bear this out to Reverend Al’s liking.

10. Cell phone conversations that don’t really need to happen.

Could ya pick up some milk…what’re you doing…dude, you wouldn’t believe how much this movie sucks.

Back when those conversations just plain didn’t happen…global warming was, also, just plain not happening. I see a connection.

Diminishing Numbers of Pirates 11. Diminishing number of pirates

Because it’s an Internet classic.

12. Liberals being angry and nasty

It started in ’98 when Bill Clinton got in all that trouble, and someone established moveon.org. Isn’t that our record-warm-year lately, 1998? Hmmmm….

13. Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction

Saddam was ordered to cease and desist, and open them up to inspection, in 1991 as one of the conditions for the cease-fire. Then you wait a few years…global warming takes off. Huh. My liberals keep telling me there were no WMDs…but how can they know? Check it out, I say.

14. Kids being diagnosed with exotic new learning disabilities

The 4A’s: Autism, Aspergers, ADHD and Allergies. Is anybody keeping track of how often these things are diagnosed? And the skyrocketing is almost perfectly parallel with the global warming thing…in a way that would make Reverend Al proud.

15. Y2K compliant products

Think about it. All that fuss and effort to make things Y2K compliant. From my vantage point, it seems looking back on it the efforts began in earnest right around ’97…by ’98, they had sucked the life out of us IT types. Reverend Al says 1998 was a record. Just sayin’…

16. Fraudulent Voting

Illegal aliens. Dead people. People who live in different counties. I don’t know if the illegitimate voting is on an upswing, but the accusations of it certainly are…and where there’s smoke there must be fire. Earth’s temperature is supposed to be up. Hmm. Seems irresponsible to ignore this possible connection.

17. democrats telling us it’s okay to lie about your personal life

It didn’t become a talking point until sometime between 1998 and 1999…sometime when the results of the DNA test on that blue dress came back. Up until then, of course, a lie was a lie was a lie. But since then we’re in this weird, surreal universe in which when we catch a politician lying, we have to prove it was “any of our business” before we’re allowed to point out that he lied. And the mean global temperature has done what?

18. Sandra Bullock making chick flicks instead of movies the fellas would appreciate

Coincidence? She makes Demolition Man…no global warming yet. She makes Speed…no global warming. She makes Practical Magic…we have global warming. From then on, Sandra makes movies to make the girls happy, and neglects the guys who built her career by paying good money to see her rescued by Keanu. Then she does it a few more times, and the global temperature goes up and up and up. You have some explaining to do, Sandra.

19. The shortage of kids actually playing outside and their mothers calling them home for supper

Did you go outside and play God-knows-where until your momma called you home for supper? If so, then find the year on the graph at the top. See where the global temperature is. Pretty low, isn’t it? And now, kids play video games. We have global warming.

20. Hate crime legislation

Perhaps global warming is God’s way of punishing us for making it our business what our fellow man is thinking…between his left ear…and his right ear. It’s none of our business. When we meddle where we don’t belong, nature has ways to retaliate. And Al Gore should like the theory just fine, because hey, the lines fit.

21. Pants that droop and show off your butt crack

Another nineties fad. Except this one stuck around, and stuck around, and stuck around some more. Global temperature was sent sky-high. Cause. Effect.

22. Kids skateboarding in retail store parking lots after the manager has politely asked them not to

It used to be an occasional happenstance. And then it happened more often, and more often, and more often still. We have global warming.

23. Barbra Streisand “final” and “going away” concerts

She keeps doing it. More and more often, it seems…during which time, the planet is being put in danger.

24. Baby boomers in positions of authority

I don’t have a theory yet for how one causes the other to happen. But there’s gotta be one. It used to be baby boomers didn’t run much of anything. They were too young. Now, everyone who runs anything of any size, is born between 1945 and 1959. And…we have global warming.

25. Hollywood making crappy anti-war anti-American movies

They do it without even thinking about it, now. It doesn’t matter if the last one they did, made any money or not (and by the way, they never do).

26. The Macarena

It came and went in 1996, didn’t it? Look at that graph. Find 1996. Tell me you don’t see something.

27. Television judges

TOUGH. SMART. STRONG. FAIR. Television judges in the “Wapner” model on daytime television who CUT THROUGH THE CRAP.

They’ve become a form of pollution, just as thick and noxious as carbon dioxide, or for that matter any other gas. I’ve lost track of ’em all.

28. Oprah Winfrey recommending books to people

She keeps doing it, over and over again. And the global temperature keeps rising.

29. Goatees

Used to be, you only saw one once in awhile. By the time we had our “warmest years on record,” if you tuned into the American Country Music awards, you saw a room full of what looked like a hundred guys all trying to look exactly like each other. Big-ass belt buckle…big-ass cowboy hat…big-ass boots…silly looking facial hair, looked like they’d been bobbing for apples in chocolate syrup, and then kissing feather pillows turned inside out. Silly. Three things classically American, coupled with one thing from 17th-century France. Who in the world decided these go together?

And the earth got hotter.

30. Women in pantsuits

Yet another hot trend from the nineties that was never questioned. More and more women, maybe with nice-lookin’ legs, but who would ever know? — They’d cover up with these pantsuits, and the planet sizzled.

These are all very silly ideas.

But not a single one of them as silly as the idea that carbon dioxide causes global warming. Because the plants and the trees and the flowers do not suck up Sandra Bullock movies or iPods. They do suck up carbon dioxide…which is a non-toxic gas in the first place.

Supposedly, if we unplug the coffee pot when it’s not in use, we can save the planet.

I think I’d rather see Sandra Bullock’s hooters. So I like my theories much better.

Great satire — way more complete than anything I’ve come up with!

On a slightly more serious note… that first chart gets really interesting when you throw a graph of solar activity over the top of it.

Sun increases output, earth gets warmer. Whodda thunk?

Plus, Earth is covered in a lotta water. Water which holds less CO2 in solution when it’s warmer than it does when it’s cooler.

Could it possibly be that higher insolation lead to warmer temperatures which led to more CO2 in the atmosphere?
- philmon | 05/29/2008 @ 10:19
Yes, what you’re pointing out is a textbook case of why it’s so important to remember that correlation is not necessarily causation. You see A correlates with B, there are four explanations possible:

1. A causes B
2. B causes A
3. A and B are both caused by an unknown C
4. Coweenkeydink

The presumption that a higher CO2 saturation is responsible for any increase in the mean global temperature, like any other presumption that correlation is causation, arbitrarily eliminates possibilities #2, #3 and #4. In that specific example, there is a GREAT weight of evidence behind #2. And some substantial evidence to back up #3 and #4 as well.

I’m leaving alone, here, my beef with what a “mean global temperature” even is…although that’s an even bigger hitch in the giddyup. It is not really measurable and it is not lifted above the realm of subjectivity. It is a two-dimensional temperature averaging conducted on a three-dimensional object. The measurements themselves, from which this averaging is done, are flawed.
- mkfreeberg | 05/29/2008 @ 11:01
This is great! Very entertaining. May I humbly add the following two events that started in the late ’90s:
(1) Viagra went on the market in 1998, the so-called year of record high temps. What if boners caused global warming??? I could just see it now: Buy Viagra, swipe your carbon ration card!

(2) Harry Potter madness started with book #1 being released in 1998. I say we take J.K. Rowling out back and wack ‘er.

http://VocalMinority.typepad.com
Jewish AND Republican?? Oy gevalt
- ericthered | 05/31/2008 @ 17:02
[…] prowling through our archives we discovered this nugget of brilliance about all the things that never seem to be blamed for global warming. But we’d dearly love to […]
- House of Eratosthenes | 10/06/2009 @ 19:01

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