House of Eratosthenes

Two years ago I placed a small wager on the Presidential elections. On the big afternoon, a conservative colleague, emotionally invested in the outcome, nervously wandered up to me with news of these exit polls. Wasn’t I worried about them? I told her no, and she shouldn’t be either. My boss asked out of curiosity what I thought the final tally was going to be. At around 3 in the afternoon pacific time, I said the President would be re-elected with about 286 electoral votes.

Like Forrest Gump, Ah’m not a smart man. It’s just that I like to keep in mind what is a fact and what is an opinion, and treat those two differently — it’s the way I think — and for reasons I have yet to discern, this way of thinking has come to be a freakish, unpopular pastime nowadays. But this election and polling and voting stuff, there is no magic to this. Remember, there were only three states in play at the time I said 286, so it wasn’t exactly like tossing a dime into a teacup from a tall building; more like eight-ball in the corner-pocket. As for the exit polls meaning nothing, it would be most accurate to call it an educated bias. A last-minute surprise, I’ve noticed, is always friendly to the left-wing side when the surprise is media-driven. And in that set of circumstances, it’s always estranged from reality. Correct in the way a stopped clock is correct every twelve hours. Essentially meaningless.

I don’t have that sense of confidence two years later, because I have come to recognize President Bush, or rather his family’s dynastic philosophy about politics, has been right all along. Politics is very much like banking. Approval is the currency of exchange. At some point, the account has to be exhausted, and the balance in the Republicans’ account is very, very low. After the Katrina disaster, it hit the “check the balance before the five dollar service charge hits” threshold of lowness — then a few more withdrawals were made, with no deposits. One overdraft statement from the bank, just one, and we’ll have House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, guaranteed…and I’m thinking we’re about $1.12 from that. With this loss of solvency, the Republicans run into a problem with flexibility. Their options are being eliminated. They need all the votes they can get. They need a constituency that is excited and energized on election day, and their constituency is a haphazard hodge-podge of voters who quote the Bible, and voters who quote Atlas Shrugged. Fun-loving grown-ups who want to go someplace with hot wings and cold beer and good-lookin’ waitresses in skimpy outfits…and concerned, married parents who’d like to stop everybody from going to such a place.

To put it more concisely, look at the record. Republicans have won three elections in a row. I have strong doubts that they can win a fourth. STRONG doubts. Their message, put into exercise, has lacked the clarity to earn such a streak. It’s contrary to human nature to put a party into power that long, in a changing world, while sustaining genuine confusion as to what that party is all about. Yes, the Democrats are an equally messy hodge-podge…but they’re not the issue. They don’t run things yet.

I haven’t placed any bets on the election. I won’t.

Well, Roger L. Simon has arrived to give me hope. It turns out that there are many reasons to believe we’ve passed a turning point, a good one; and the turning point he’d like to talk about, is a very good one indeed.

Good News for Bush and Chomsky, Bad News for the UN

Today’s Hugo Chavez ‘stemwinder’ at the UN – which saw the Venezuelan Mussolini wannabe calling Bush Satan, replete with sulphurous fumes, while waving around a tome by Noam Chomsky – was certainly a plus for both subjects … Bush, already recovering in the polls, gets a further boost from the thug’s almost comical attack (“Live in New York… it’s Hugo Chavez!”) and the the multi-millionaire marxiste gets another goose to his already copious book sales.

The big loser was, of course, the United Nations, not the least because Chavez was saluted for his efforts by a hearty round of applause. As I have written numerous times on this blog, I am a supporter of the UN. But now I wonder if it’s salvageable as do, no doubt, many Americans whose tax dollars provide the primary support for what looks increasingly like a social club for sociopaths and kleptocrats.

Pondering the idea of Republicans winning a fourth time in a row, it just hit me — you know what American politics is like? Banking isn’t quite the best analogy. It’s more like a game of Jenga. Looking back on it, 2004 was an easy call; this one is quite a bit tougher. If the Republicans do manage to pull this fat out of the fire and keep their committee chairmanships, 2008 will be an even tougher row to hoe.

Every move, while one party remains in charge, gets shakier and shakier. Every time a brick is pulled out, at this point, all who watch the game in progress let out sighs of astonishment, relief, and on the other side of the aisle, despair. Success is greated with greater and greater levels of sincere surprise, until the potential for failure approches one. Sooner or later, the tower has to come down.

I’m not suggesting Republicans purposely lose 2006 in order to have a better shot at the White House in two years. This election is far, far too important for that. I’m just pointing out reality: Democrats will have another issue for ’08, namely, “we wanted to open investigations into lying about Iraq in order to start a war for oil, and Republicans stopped us from doing it (by kicking our asses), WHAT’RE THEY TRYING TO HIDE???” Yes, they’ll say it, and yes, it’ll work. Pretty stupid device to use, but this kind of stuff works and you can bet they’ll use it.

Dead terrorists…versus, revenge for Monica-gate. That’s what this coming November is all about.

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Summit IIIFriday, September 22nd, 2006

Summit III
Friday, September 22nd, 2006