House of Eratosthenes

Just two years ago it seemed highly unlikely that Barack Obama would turn out to be a one-term president. But looking at voters’ frustrations with our continuing economic problems and the growth of federal government intrusiveness during Mr. Obama’s first term, more and more commentators are saying this may actually come to pass. Of course a lot can happen over a year, and we should never underestimate the power of incumbency (or the benefit Democratic presidents have with the press). The question is whether, even with these advantages, the president can possibly win re-election without significant good news on the economic front. The other question is: If Obama does lose, what will the new Republicans in the White House and, presumably, Congress do, and what should they do?

The current polls are not encouraging for the president. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows him trailing a generic Republican by 6%. Gallup shows the generic Republican up by 8%, and the ABC News/Washington Post poll finds 11% more disapprove than approve of the president. Rasmussen has strong presidential approval at 19% and strong disapproval at 41%. The RealClearPolitics average last week shows just 17% think our nation is on the right track, and 76% think it is on the wrong-track. Rasmussen also reports that just 16% of likely voters think the country is headed in the right direction, down 16 points from last year.

Now comes an Investors Business Daily/TIPP survey showing, according to IBD, that a “majority of Americans now oppose giving President Obama a second term, and that by 51%-41% respondents in October picking ‘someone new deserves a chance,’ over Obama ‘deserves to be re-elected.’ Among independents it was 54%-36%”.

And it gets worse. The current ABC News/Washington Post polling finds that 55% of American people believe a Republican will win the election, and 37% that Obama will win. Democrats expect to win by 58% to 33% percent, while Republicans believe they will win 83% to 13%. By 54% to 36%, independents think a Republican will beat Mr. Obama.

A lot can happen between now and Election Day. Obama’s best hope at this point, in my opinion, is sliming the opposition. The “Obama the Terrist Killing Machine!” hype just isn’t working, it’s turning off the base, and the opposition that likes to see dead terrorists roll in, myself included, tends to work from a position of knowledge, pay attention to the details, and therefore we’re left unimpressed.

Just speaking for myself, I’ve entirely excluded the possibility that the “economy might rebound.” Oh, here and there a positive blip, maybe. But Barack Obama is in charge. So it will stay anemic, and Obama’s campaign strategy for the next year vis a vis the economy, will be what it has been for the last three: Blame you-know-who.

Look for the Al Gore strategy. No not the global warming thing, the “Put that guy in charge and your grandmother is going to have to choose between heart medicine and cat food” ploy. That’s all there is.

Obama’s best hope at this point, in my opinion, is sliming the opposition

God knows he’s done it before. Remember how that Chicago court helpfully unsealed his opponent’s divorce records?

Not only does he have to lose, he has to lose within the largest conceivable margin of fraud. That’s a pretty tall order.
- Severian | 10/24/2011 @ 12:31
So it will stay anemic, and Obama’s campaign strategy for the next year vis a vis the economy, will be what it has been for the last three: Blame you-know-who.

The question isn’t whether the president will pull that tired, shopworn cliche out of his bag of tricks. He will.

The question is whether or not the American people will fall for the “Bush left SUCH a mess, I’m going to need a 2nd term to finish cleaning it up!” crappola.
- cylarz | 10/25/2011 @ 05:27

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“No More Years”Monday, October 24th, 2011

“No More Years”
Monday, October 24th, 2011