House of Eratosthenes

Seven months ago I had it figured out: If She Comes Gunnin’ For it, the Job’s Hers. Last week I took a hard look at this statement of hers that she could snag it, placing a little more scrutiny on how she’d fare in the battle for the nomination.

This morning, Frank Rich writes a similar exploration of her chances of becoming the nominee. It is peppered with creative insults directed toward Republicans in general and Palin in particular, but…see for yourself…

If logic applied to Palin’s career trajectory, this month might have been judged dreadful for her. In an otherwise great year for Republicans she endorsed a “Star Wars” bar gaggle of anomalous and wacky losers — the former witch, Christine O’Donnell; the raging nativist, Tom Tancredo; and at least two candidates who called for armed insurrection against the government, Sharron Angle and a would-be Texas congressman, Stephen Broden, who lost by over 50 percentage points. Last week voters in Palin’s home state humiliatingly “refudiated” her protégé, Joe Miller, overturning his victory in the G.O.P. Senate primary with a write-in campaign.

But logic doesn’t apply to Palin. What might bring down other politicians only seems to make her stronger: the malapropisms and gaffes, the cut-and-run half-term governorship, family scandals, shameless lying and rapacious self-merchandising. In an angry time when America’s experts and elites all seem to have failed, her amateurism and liabilities are badges of honor.
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Republican leaders who want to stop her, and they are legion, are utterly baffled about how to do so. Democrats, who gloat that she’s the Republicans’ problem, may be humoring themselves. When Palin told Barbara Walters last week that she believed she could beat Barack Obama in 2012, it wasn’t an idle boast. Should Michael Bloomberg decide to spend billions on a quixotic run as a third-party spoiler, all bets on Obama are off.

Of course Palin hasn’t decided to run yet. Why rush? In the post-midterms Gallup poll she hit her all-time high unfavorable rating (52 percent), but in the G.O.P. her favorable rating is an awesome 80 percent, virtually unchanged from her standing at the end of 2008 (83 percent). She can keep floating above the pack indefinitely as the celebrity star of a full-time reality show where she gets to call all the shots.

If Palin makes the decision to run — and, as Rich correctly points out, she has not and may not — she faces two high hurdles: Becoming the nominee for the Republican party (or something else perhaps?), and taking down the incumbent. Rich’s purpose is obviously to launch a salvo against all those ideological positions he hates, and so he has placed the emphasis on the former question and not the latter.

But my challenge stands: In January of 2013, someone is taking the Oath of Office for the Presidency of the United States. That much is a near certainty. How can it not happen? Events could unfold as they did in that John Cusack movie, or aliens could attack us, or China could call our debt and we’d have to sell everything to buy our next helping of oxygen to breathe. Or the world could blow up, or God could unplug the whole thing. Barring those alternatives, someone is getting sworn in.

So let us walk through all of the possibilities systematically. For reasons that will become abundantly evident, Palin-bashers are terrified of doing this…but let’s do it anyway.

If it’s the incumbent who is to place His Holy Hand on a Bible and sonorously intone that oath, this economy is going to have to get substantially stronger or He can just forget it. All of we who lay some claim to our own sanity, agree on this right? By 2013, the electorate is not going to persist in this dogma of “I guess Bush screwed things up really badly and You just need more time.” Obama’s personal charisma is formidable, but at this point we have a reasonably sturdy understanding of the limits to what it can achieve. It can get a democrat elected President when a Republican President is being term-limited out, and people are fed up with an unpopular war that seems to have been instigated by him. It can buy that incoming democrat President a super-majority in the Senate — just barely — and a little tiny bit of time. A breathtakingly small amount of time. That’s it.

It can’t do anything like exempt Him from the timeless and eternal rule of American politics that if you’re the sitting President, and the economy sucks green eggs, you’re deader than Constantine. Period, end of story. Obama sees the economy turn around, or He’s out. You need to sign on to that much, or you’re just plain nuts. Or a shill. Or both. Either way, that’s the reality of the situation, Obama will be held accountable for results. Perhaps for the first time in His life.

Is the economy going to turn around?

My hope is that it levels off, but — well, how do I say that nicely. “Level off” is an optimistic assessment. A stimulus isn’t going to do anything better than that, because this economy isn’t suffering from a lack of cash, but rather from a lack of confidence. The businesses simply don’t know what to expect next. This government needs to get out of the way. It needs to get libertarian real quick, or you can forget it.

Under Obama it isn’t going to get libertarian. Not possible. So I hope the economy stagnates, not because I want Obama to lose but because that really is the best possible outcome. I don’t even want to look into the alternatives that could really happen and you don’t want me to do that either.

A Dick Morris type will start working in the White House, tell Obama to take a sharp right turn, and Holy Man is gonna listen? You dream. You’ve forgotten the nature of The Man. Nope, it’s just more pencil-pushing rules from here to the end of 2012. Lots of bureaucracy, lots of centralized authority, lots of half-cocked legislation and you’d better believe a whole lot more speech-making peppered thickly with “Make No Mistake,” “Let Me Be Clear” and “Change.”

So we’ve supped at the sumptuous buffet table of what Obama has to offer us, grown weary of it, and there are no more dishes to bring out from the kitchen. Variety is not this chef’s game and it never was. Check, please.

So it isn’t Obama. Could we have a situation like 1968, where He decides if He isn’t going to win He isn’t going to play? That certainly would be in keeping with His personality…but only if He could face up to the prediction that He would lose. Again, you forget the nature of The Man — Barack Obama cannot even face up to the possibility. Since being born in…aw, I don’t wanna get into that, it’s out of scope…He hasn’t had to consider it. It has not been a possibility. He’s spent a lifetime being a pre-declared winner, pre-declared by fiat, and He’s thoroughly spoiled on this.

Could the democrats figure this out, and pressure Him to step aside? Could they force His hand, running a competitor up against Him during the primaries? Don’t be silly. The democrat party does its thinking like an insect’s hive; it’s all cooked up at the top, it all trickles down to the lower ranks, and if you don’t go along you’re out of the club. Just like a labor union with a little less kneecap-breaking.

So the dems are losing this thing. Whether they act like it or not, this whole thing is slipping out of their fingers and they’ve lost it already. So back to the President-Elect taking the oath in two winters. Is it…Newt Gingrich? Is it Mitt Romney? Tim Pawlenty? Mike Huckabee? Bobby Jindal? You need to go back and read Frank Rich’s column. Or, if you’re more into reality, take a look at what blogger friend Gerard Van der Leun gathered about it. Yeah, we’re in there a few times…but still, they’re good points.

And then you have to look at how Republicans see…what is the proper name for it. Let’s call it equity. Heard the story of the little red hen who wanted to bake some bread while all the other barnyard animals just yawned, napped, made some ObamaCare emergency room visits, cashed their stimulus checks and watched reality television all day? That’s a Republican fairy tale. It’s still a conservative party, and it doesn’t look too kindly on one person doing all the work, as Palin’s been doing this year, while everyone else sunbathes away…followed by some suit-wearing “electable” smiley guy swooping in and reaping the rewards. Well okay, some of the politicians might approve of that. But the voters who will be participating in the primaries, aren’t too fond of that. Generally, they’ve read the hen-story before. And they figure, if it’s just one person who’s done all the work, then the hen-story rules apply. The bread is yours. Doesn’t matter if you’re a dumb ol’ girl who wears slutty airline stewardess glasses. Let the democrats worry about stuff like that.

So the distinguished looking gentlemen wearing their nice suits, who are white, straight, male, six-feet tall, sixty years old, oh so dignified and distinguished looking and respectable — have sat this whole thing out. Palin jumped in and did all the work. Okay, maybe you’re part of the “Republicans could have taken the Senate if it weren’t for her” crowd. That’s silly, but okay you’re entitled to your opinion…still….she did the work. She was out there. Sorry, I don’t care how nicely you can smile and how good you look in a suit. You can’t sit out there and let someone else do everything, then leap in and say “Okay, you have to nominate me I’m going to represent your party in the general election now.” It just isn’t going to fly.

To a Republican voter, that looks exactly like what it is: a usurpation. They don’t look too fondly on that. The democrats might approve of such a thing, after a whole lot of in-fighting about who’s gonna win and which designated-victim-group enjoys the more exalted aggrieved status. If that’s what you’re used to, Palin’s nomination will come as a surprise to you. But there still are some differences between these two major parties, especially when you factor in the personalities of the voters who are faithful to them. And this little-red-hen-baking-bread story, or rather the lesson it teaches, has a lot to do with the biggest difference.

So no, it isn’t Gingrich Pawlenty Romney Huckabee or Jindal. It sure as hell isn’t John McCain. Now you’re down to George W. Bush, and he’s been term-limited out.

I will concede that the Supergirl-costume part of my inauguration day fantasy may not be a winning bet. Even with global warming, the winds off the Potomac in January are a little nippy for those red hot pants…and I’m a little unclear how they’re going to manage the 20th landing on a Sunday.

As to the rest of it, we’ve explored all of the alternatives and the probability of all of them, added together, doesn’t amount to much. Yes, they’re all possible. But only tangentially so. As possibilities go, they are freakish outliers…each and every single one of them. Except, maybe, for her choosing not to run!

If she comes gunnin’ for it, the job is hers.

Morgan,

I was one of those people who knew about Palin before McCain did the one canny act of his candidacy. Just ask my wife: we were at the OB-GYn’s office checking on our 3rd little bun when I saw on the waiting room television that Palin had been tagged. It was the first time during the election that I actually displayed any enthusiasm for the season. Then, of course, McCain continued to be himself and things went downhill. Such is life.

In any event, my point-yes, I have one- is that I’m not convinced about Palin winning the nomination. Her candidacy would be viewed as simply evil by the legion of inside the Beltway GOPers who desire nothing more than the trappings of power and all that goes along with it. So Palin’s biggest obstacle wouldn’t be the Democrats, but rather the establishment Republicans. They have no desire for a president who would upset the apple cart.

Of course, if Sarah were on track for the nomination and the insiders decide to backstab her, a large percentage of conservatives and libertarians in this country would essentially check out of the current political milieu, opting for a decade plus in the political wilderness to start a third party designed to replace the rotting carcass of the GOP.

Bear in mind that the GOP isn’t known as the party of the stupid for no reason. To use Doc Zero’s turn of phrase, I fully expect the Republicans to “Mitt things up” in 2012.
- Physics Geek | 11/22/2010 @ 10:50
I have to admit, PG, I’m not willing to take that bet…or, at least, place a large amount of money on it. I’ve always said, since when Chairman Zero’s approval rating was just beginning its lawn-dart-like plummet, that between the nomination fight and the general election Palin’s biggest challenge would be the first one.

I’m positive that the next time she makes some inroads, those who have some ego invested in opposing her will become louder and louder. This past week is proof of that.

Now if Mitt wants to claw his way to the top, he can try. He’s still leading by about a point. And the GOP has been infiltrated by the Obama way of thinking; see Frum and Noonan for examples. The mindset that, if one personality is “electable” and the other is somehow not, then the issues and positions sort of melt into the background and no longer matter…or shouldn’t.

But it would be extraordinarily awkward. There was some heavy lifting to be done and Mittster was nowhere to be found. Palin’s no shoe-in, sure — but I can see her getting it done, provided she withholds the permission necessary for her enemies to succeed. Thus far, she has done exactly this, and the results have been generally positive. She’s on the way.

I cannot see Mitt pulling this off. Not unless the party has been more infiltrated than I think. Even when Kerry landed the nomination six years ago, it took a “Dean Scream” to make that happen. Palin is folksy, not unhinged.
- mkfreeberg | 11/22/2010 @ 11:25
it’s just more pencil-pushing rules from here to the end of 2012. Lots of bureaucracy, lots of centralized authority, lots of half-cocked legislation

You hope, companero… you hope. And so do I.

Honestly, I thought this was what we were going to get out of the GW Bush administration — a nice placeholder, Republican-ish, with most of the “debate” taking places on the margins of a decent economy and a manageable security situation. 2004, I thought, would be the time we’d revisit issues and talk about the direction of government after our Clintonian holiday from history. And then 9/11 happened, and all of a sudden we’re beyond Thunderdome.

In my darker moments, I think the terrorists have already won. After all, their goal was/is to fundamentally transform America, to make it into a weak or even nonexistent global power. Well, they hit Manhattan, and 52% of the country dragged 48% of the country into the fight all unwilling. Fast forward 7 years, and a different 52% dragged the other 48% into sclerotic Euro-socialism. If it continues — and I have no reason to believe that the 1 out of 3 chambers of government that is “conservative”-controlled can change this — America will be fundamentally different than she was. Poorer, more isolationist, unwilling and unable to stand up for herself. 9/11 caused this. The terrorists have won.

New federal legislation on the proper crease in dungarees and EPA-mandated sideburn length are the absolute best we can hope for in the next few years. If I were a betting man and didn’t love my country, I’d lay heavy $$ on the proposition that in the next year or so, some dude named Muhammad al-Abdullah bin-Jihadi saunters onto a plane somewhere with an AK-47 while TSA is cavity-searching a grandmother named Gertrude O’Leary. Or with Semtex. Or with a big bag of plutonium or anthrax. I’d further bet that Ahmadinnerjacket holds a press conference soon afterword where he all but takes credit for it. And then what?

Eh, maybe I’m just experiencing the winter blues. But personally I’m glad we have the time to have these “will she or won’t she?” Sarah Palin discussions. Because the next president — whoever that might be — is most likely going to inherit a world of shit far greater than the one we’re already in.
- Severian | 11/22/2010 @ 13:46

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