Alarming News: I like Morgan Freeberg. A lot.
American Digest: And I like this from "The Blog That Nobody Reads", because it is -- mostly -- about me. What can I say? I'm on an ego trip today. It won't last.
Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler: We were following a trackback and thinking "hmmm... this is a bloody excellent post!", and then we realized that it was just part III of, well, three...Damn. I wish I'd written those.
Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler: ...I just remembered that I found a new blog a short while ago, House of Eratosthenes, that I really like. I like his common sense approach and his curiosity when it comes to why people believe what they believe rather than just what they believe.
Brutally Honest: Morgan Freeberg is brilliant.
Dr. Melissa Clouthier: Morgan Freeberg at House of Eratosthenes (pftthats a mouthful) honors big boned women in skimpy clothing. The picture there is priceless--keep scrolling down.
Exile in Portales: Via Gerard: Morgan Freeberg, a guy with a lot to say. And he speaks The Truth...and it's fascinating stuff. Worth a read, or three. Or six.
Just Muttering: Two nice pieces at House of Eratosthenes, one about a perhaps unintended effect of the Enron mess, and one on the Gore-y environ-movie.
Mein Blogovault: Make "the Blog that No One Reads" one of your daily reads.
The Virginian: I know this post will offend some people, but the author makes some good points.
Poetic Justice: Cletus! Ah gots a laiv one fer yew...
Dozens and dozens of times now, this blog, which nobody actually reads anyway, has been handing out awards for the Best Sentence I’ve Heard Or Read Lately (BSIHORL). We started calling it that when we realized it was senseless to hand out awards for “This Year’s Best Sentence” or “This Week’s Best Sentence.” That’s the nature of wonderful sentences; you can go eons without hearing anything worth repeating, and then wham bam, twice in a single day you’ll get some real gems. We wanted to be prepared. So we made the time increment entirely arbitrary. And, of course, sometimes you hear these things, sometimes you read ’em. Heard Or Read covers all that.
This has worked out great. Until now. Blogger friend Phil has come up with what is, undoubtedly, the Best Question I’ve Heard Or Read Lately. I mean, there’s lotsa questions that are good; this one’s a humdinger.
It’s got to do with the Bradley Effect. Go on, read up if you need to.
Here we go…
Question about the so-called “Bradley Effect”
Has anybody asked if the so-called “Bradley Effect” might not be so much to do with whites not wanting to appear biased toward the white candidate, but to blacks not wanting to admit that they’re voting for the white guy?
I mean, I can’t see too many whites giving two whits about the skin tone of someone I voted for. But it appears to me that if you’re black and you’re not voting for the black candidate … you’re some sort of sell-out, Uncle Tom, traitor to your race.
Just askin’. I always hear it portrayed as a phenomenon having to do with whites. Has the flip side of that question even been asked?
I suppose it doesn’t very much matter. If you have a Bradley Effect, you can measure it in terms of a number of percentage points, go forward the next election cycle, and extrapolate that many percentage points to recalibrate what’s going to happen against your polling data. That would work, except for — one candidate or the other is a bigger jackass than either of the candidates four years previous…or the region is different (one in the deep south, one not, for example). My point is, the reason would be irrelevant — which demographic is most heavily affected, would be irrelevant.
But Phil’s point is well-taken. Conventional wisdom, as summed-up in the Wikipedia article, is that “some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation.” Conventional wisdom, therefore, is going out of its way to make white voters look like dickholes. Phil’s theory relies on the premise that the social stigma involved in shunning a candidate of color is at least as odious within the black community, as it is in the white community. And, to us, this just seems obvious. We think Phil’s on to something. For whatever it’s worth.
How could it become relevant? Well, some regions of this great country have more or less of a ratio of African-American voters than others. As a whole, the last census indicates the population to be 36 million out of 301, or just under 12%.
Barack Obama is currently leading John McCain by 7.3 percentage points. Some polls have him ahead by six. Some less than that.
This is a problem for The Chosen One.
Dont’ look at me. I’m white; I’m voting against The Messiah, not because of the color of his skin, but because I want more terrorists killed. That’s the way I’m voting and that’s exactly what I’m telling the pollsters, so there’s no Bradley Effect going on here…but I live in California, which Obama’s going to win by a double-digit margin anyway.
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Aw, shucks.
It doesn’t look good right now for The Party That Makes More Sense Than The Other … but I’ll still go pull the lever for
JohnSarah. I hope others aren’t demoralized by the lead and the McCain campaign’s inability to gain any traction. I further hope that a lot of the hopey-changey vote stays home and hope for change rather than voting.Obama’s spent an a** ton of money this past month on TV ads (outspending McCain 3-1) and the internet advertising has been an absolute deluge. We also get 2 or 3 slick
Obama“McCain Bad” ads in our mailbox per week. Those aren’t cheap.Between the Hopey-Changey’s (see, look, I helped elect the first Black President … huh? What does “socialism” mean?) and the Voter Busses in areas where people depend on government services … the plan is to beat us by turnout.
I’m still considering putting this bumpersticker on my car. I’m not an “in your face” kind of guy, though, and the nice people across the street who are big Obama supporters might take offense. My wife did make me get a McCain/Palin yardsign to “counter” their Obama/Biden one (she didn’t have to do much arm-twisting). But this goes beyond saying “here’s who I am for” to saying “I’m definitely AGAINST who you’re for”. Besides … not too sure how much it will help.
- philmon | 10/13/2008 @ 10:50