Alarming News: I like Morgan Freeberg. A lot.
American Digest: And I like this from "The Blog That Nobody Reads", because it is -- mostly -- about me. What can I say? I'm on an ego trip today. It won't last.
Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler: We were following a trackback and thinking "hmmm... this is a bloody excellent post!", and then we realized that it was just part III of, well, three...Damn. I wish I'd written those.
Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler: ...I just remembered that I found a new blog a short while ago, House of Eratosthenes, that I really like. I like his common sense approach and his curiosity when it comes to why people believe what they believe rather than just what they believe.
Brutally Honest: Morgan Freeberg is brilliant.
Dr. Melissa Clouthier: Morgan Freeberg at House of Eratosthenes (pftthats a mouthful) honors big boned women in skimpy clothing. The picture there is priceless--keep scrolling down.
Exile in Portales: Via Gerard: Morgan Freeberg, a guy with a lot to say. And he speaks The Truth...and it's fascinating stuff. Worth a read, or three. Or six.
Just Muttering: Two nice pieces at House of Eratosthenes, one about a perhaps unintended effect of the Enron mess, and one on the Gore-y environ-movie.
Mein Blogovault: Make "the Blog that No One Reads" one of your daily reads.
The Virginian: I know this post will offend some people, but the author makes some good points.
Poetic Justice: Cletus! Ah gots a laiv one fer yew...
That was pretty damn short, wasn’t it?
Experts see double-digit Dem losses
After an August recess marked by raucous town halls, troubling polling data and widespread anecdotal evidence of a volatile electorate, the small universe of political analysts who closely follow House races is predicting moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010.
Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance.
Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.”
“Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,” he wrote.
At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.
I think that’s just about right. The House will probably stay in democrat hands…but “probably” as in a revolver loaded with two bullets in six chambers “probably” won’t go off. The GOP has a chance. And, at any rate, it seems silly to try to deny some kind of a shake-up is in order.
The democrats had their chance, and they blew it. And I think it might very well have been the “Pass health care for Ted” that really sealed their fate. It’s not right-wingers bad-mouthing them anymore; Main Street USA has started to figure them out. They’re all about finding the perfect sales pitch to sell ideas that aren’t good for anyone. Well…aren’t good for most of us.
It took Republicans three election cycles to urinate away that much opportunity.
Looks like the pattern’s staying consistent: The public doesn’t like skyrocketing debt. Now then — when does Washington start to pay attention?
Update 9/2/09: Wanted to snag this bit from yesterday morning. Although it isn’t important enough to justify a post of its own, it is a point worth remembering that the “Obama Slide” is nothing short of historical:
The White House has failed to veto measures, like the pork-laden omnibus spending bill, that would have demonstrated independence and fiscal restraint. By force of circumstances and by design, the president has promoted one policy after another that increases spending and centralizes power in Washington.
The result is the Obama slide, the most important feature of the current moment. The number of Americans who trust President Obama to make the right decisions has fallen by roughly 17 percentage points. Obama’s job approval is down to about 50 percent. All presidents fall from their honeymoon highs, but in the history of polling, no newly elected American president has fallen this far this fast.
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Interesting analysis, and I hope it’s accurate. My worst fear is that we’ll see the returns coming in next November and see that little has changed. Even weakening their majority would be a step in the right direction, to say nothing of actually retaking the House. I’ve been hearing rumblings for some time now that a shake-up is coming just due to the sheer degree of radicalism that the Democrats have tried to push on us – Obama Care, the Porkulus, auto and bank bailouts, Crap N Trade, and more.
What about the Senate? True, that body has never been as volatile since only 1/3 of the members are up for re-election in 2010, as opposed to the entire House. And also, it’s worth nothing that even the Dem Senators who were elected in 2006 won’t be up for re-election until ’12. That means in 2010, it will still be a lot of GOP Senators (the ones who are left!) who are vulnerable. Are there any prospects for the Democrats further solidifying their filibuster-proof majority, or is there actually a snowball’s chance of at least getting us back to a gridlocked situation? I’d accept that at this point – anything to slow down Obama’s agenda and buy us some time until ’12, when he himself may be thrown out. If he gets another term, we can expect to see even more radical agenda items, such as the return of the federal assault-weapons ban which expired in 1994.
- cylarz | 08/31/2009 @ 21:15The democrats are looking for good news in the Senate. Since it’s a three phase cycle with a hundred seats in the chamber, this involves 33 seats being up for two of those phases and 34 on the third; 2010 happens to be that third phase with an extra seat, plus the seats vacated by Joe Biden and Ted Kennedy for a total of thirty-six. Within those 36, it seems like an even split between incumbent-Republican and incumbent-democrat, with democrats enjoying a significant edge in seats considered “safe.”
The fatigue with the policies coming out of that chamber, is the only weapon the GOP has. And the GOP, of course, is the only weapon the people have, as they defend themselves from liberal policies.
- mkfreeberg | 09/01/2009 @ 06:55[…] Hat Tip: House of Eratosthenes […]
- Cassy Fiano » Experts predicting double-digit losses for Democrats in 2010 | 09/01/2009 @ 13:36[…] Hat Tip: House of Eratosthenes […]
- Experts predicting double-digit losses for Democrats in 2010 - Victory Girls Blog | 08/07/2018 @ 09:02